No. of Recommendations: 7
I saw your post on the Fool, about the US allowing Iranian exports out of the Gulf.
You cited the two men with a grenade, in an elevator, scenario.
I propose the US is allowing Iranian shipments, so as not to piss off the primary buyer of that crude, China. God on Earth Trump sees a meeting with Xi as another opportunity to show the world what a big shot he is, so does not want to antagonize the Chinese by cutting off their oil.
But, with his usual lack of thought, Trump the God then told the Chinese that they, along with several other countries, need to force the strait open by force of arms, to maintain their crude supply. Instead, China suggested Trump the Most Perfect stop the war he started.
So now, the big meeting with Xi has been postponed. Trump acts like the postponement was his idea, of course. More likely, Xi told him to pound sand. Interestingly, the Beeb offered that no-one thought much would have been accomplished in that meeting. The Trump regime fired all the State Department people who knew how to do the needed planning for such a meeting. Chinese officials were reportedly increasingly frustrated because their USian counterparts didn't know what they were doing. Who is "winning"? China, because they are looking like the reliable, rules based, partner, while the US staggers from crisis to crisis, pissing off everyone in sight.
We should know, in a few days, which of us is right. If it's the grenade scenario, Iranian shipments will continue unopposed by the US. If Trump the God was buttering up the Chinese, he will cut off shipments, maybe bomb Kharg Island into rubble, out of spite for the Chinese, as much as anything else.
Steve
No. of Recommendations: 4
I propose the US is allowing Iranian shipments, so as not to piss off the primary buyer of that crude, China. God on Earth Trump sees a meeting with Xi as another opportunity to show the world what a big shot he is, so does not want to antagonize the Chinese by cutting off their oil.
It can be two things. Cutting off Iranian oil has more than one negative impact.
As you point out, it would antagonize China - and might even be serious enough to them that they feel compelled to intervene directly in the war. It's not just "buttering up" China - they have a significant economic and energy security interest in the area and might take steps to protect it.
And it would spike oil prices even further. Every Republican on the Hill is screaming to Trump (or at least to his Cabinet and every Trump-whisperer they can find) that they're going to get killed if they have an extended period of ~$4.00 gas. And Trump has a good instinctive read on his own voters, and he knows damn well that they don't like high gas prices.
Both of those things are true. Neither of those things disappear because the China summit has been postponed. Trump doesn't want Chinese warships moving to the Gulf to provide interference against U.S. attacks, and he doesn't want oil prices to go any higher than they are now.
Don't get me wrong - Trump is perfectly capable of making dumb moves without taking into account the strategic consequences of his choices. The entire Iranian "excursion" probably falls into that category. He could very well decide to start interdicting Iranian oil exports or attack Kharg just because he wants to show that he's still driving events, rather than facing constraints from factors that he doesn't control.
But no - he's not currently refraining from stopping Iran's oil exports just because he wants a summit. He doesn't want to add pressure to already dangerously high gas prices. That's the main reason. It's why he relaxed sanctions against Russia, and why he is letting the Iranian oil flow.
No. of Recommendations: 1
spoofing as a china-flagged commercial vessel may be more effective than expected.
may also need some visual tricks to pass a superficial scan. (pete, am telling you now, dont try this for american military vessels)
iran has no shortage of targets, doesnt mind missing a few.
https://fortune.com/2026/03/07/us-navy-protection-... 