*                         10/16    10/23    10/30    11/6/23
S&P 500 Index             4327.78  4224.16  4117.37  4358.34
Trailing 12 month PE      22.81    21.93    21.36    22.49
Trail Earnings yield      4.38%    4.56%    4.68%    4.45%
Forward 12 month PE       19.36    18.96    18.59    19.79
Fwd Earnings Yield        5.16%    5.27%    5.38%    5.05%
90 day tbill yield        5.62     5.58     5.59     5.53
10 year tbond yield       4.63%    4.93%    4.84%    4.57%
Arezi Ratio               1.28     1.22     1.19     1.24
Fed Ratio                 0.90     0.93     0.90     0.90

The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.

The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.

The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 58%
stocks, 42% cash this week.

Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is above its 200DMA. - Bullish
We are in the Nov-Apr part of the year. - Bullish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is inverted. - Bearish

A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 38%.

An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 83%.

Elan

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