No. of Recommendations: 1
The usual "Narrative" is that the stock market in form of the S&P 500 is climbing from new high to new high, with the "indicator guys" here and at the MI board therefore seeing all signals on "Go!".
But this picture is very different if you look at the S&P without just a very few dominant stocks and their constant and exorbitant rise this year. Just have a look without Nvidia, Apple and Meta.
Apart from Berkshire I sold everything during the first few months of the year - but kept 1 share each to "keep me honest", to follow them and to see what I might miss by selling them (or not).
...
So although the S&P is constantly rising since I sold, I didn't miss anything. That could be because I might be an especially bad stock picker, but it seems to be true for most other stocks I am following as well. What I observe is either not or only a little higher, I think you just self-identified the problem. ;-)
I took a quick look at a few of my portfolios that don't hold any of the top S&P500 stocks. Jan 1,2024 to Oct 25 No funds added or removed.
+14.5%
+17.7%
+23.4%
+19.5%
+17.5% (This one has 4% NVDA)
How could we figure the S&P500 return without those top few stocks? How about a portfolio benchmark starting with SPY in January and give a negative weight to each of those top holdings according to their weights, increasing the SPY weight so the total comes to 100%.
SPY: 29.85%
SPY w/o those: 22.50%
testfol.io: Portfolio Backtester for ETFs and Asset AllocationSo, yeah, the other 490 stocks in the S&P500 are also doing gangbusters.
