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So, there's no knife falling quite so fast these days as Tesla. Elon Musk is irradiating his personal brand (and that of Tesla) among a big swath of the country, China's got some issues both as an EV market and manufacturing center, and the EV segment of the market is maturing. That's let a lot of the air out of the stock, which has dropped nearly a quarter of its value this week.

But several of those things might be short-term. Musk eventually will have to step away from Twitter - he can't keep running both Twitter and Tesla, and I can't see him picking the former over the latter. Eventually Covid will do what it will do to largely unvaccinated China, and the factories will fully open again. And there's still lots of growth to come in the EV market.

Is there a point when TSLA becomes attractive?

Albaby

Is there a point when TSLA becomes attractive?

Probably not for me, at least not in dollar amounts greater than what is essentially a lottery ticket purchase. I won't go into the numbers, given my reasoning has more to do with a trust factor than a profit factor. I find it very hard to take Musk seriously when it comes to running a business, and the fact that he has thrown around his shares of TSLA to fund his bizarre seemingly impulse purchase of Twitter, has me wary of him as a majority shareholder as well. One does not seem to be able to apply rules of normalcy to anything Musk does, which may be how he achieves his creativity in development, but is undesirable in corporate management.

Frankly concerns about TSLA is one reason why I focus on QQQE v QQQ and RSP v SPY. I would rather spike my ETF returns by buying stock I believe in that is already in QQQE and RSP, rather than letting them overweight me in ways that turn my stomach.

Am looking at other holdings in the EV market, such as RIVN, F, and even TM as a compromise measure given my lack of ability to buy an EV due to MY needs re range. YMMV, so to speak. Too early to post anything here on that.

FWIW,

IP

So, there's no knife falling quite so fast these days as Tesla. Elon Musk is irradiating his personal brand (and that of Tesla) among a big swath of the country, China's got some issues both as an EV market and manufacturing center, and the EV segment of the market is maturing. That's let a lot of the air out of the stock, which has dropped nearly a quarter of its value this week.

But several of those things might be short-term. Musk eventually will have to step away from Twitter - he can't keep running both Twitter and Tesla, and I can't see him picking the former over the latter. Eventually Covid will do what it will do to largely unvaccinated China, and the factories will fully open again. And there's still lots of growth to come in the EV market.


An interesting quandary.

I would say that, while there are legitimate worries about China, I am not too concerned about the other 2 factors you mentioned, i.e. Musk and non-Tesla EV competition.

China: I agree that COVID is likely to blow over pretty quickly there, probably taking a large toll on seniors, but then the economy will roar back, all the stronger for having lost a large number of people past their productive years. And what is lacking in vaccine immunity will very soon be replaced by the more dangerous but more effective sort, natural immunity from an infection. On the other hand, war in Taiwan is a distinct possibility, and the war and the blowbacks from Western countries would wreak havoc on Tesla production and sales in China. Apart from the fact that being so dependent on the whim's of the Chinese government is definitely a significant risk.

Musk: Maybe I am underestimating how negative the reaction to Musk is among part of Tesla's clientele, i.e. virtue signalers, but I think Tesla's cars sell themselves on their technical merits, and people who want an electric vehicle, for whatever reason, will very often end up buying the most technologically advanced ones (i.e. Tesla's), despite their irritation with some of Musk's provocative recent actions. And as far as Musk's abilities go, I think Musk on numerous different occasions has demonstrated his ability to grow a big important business. He will figure out what to do with Twitter and Tesla's woes, either by ceding active control of Twitter or by finding a less controversial CEO for Tesla, while keeping the Engineer in Chief role of course.


Non-Tesla EV competition: I don't think anyone has the ability, currently, to profitably sell cars with an adequate range for a fully electric vehicle. Tesla's cars are still miles ahead, in terms of kilometres of autonomy per battery kWh, and having less efficient batteries and battery management and engines not only means you need more costly batteries to get the same range, you also need heavy vehicles, meaning higher material costs and even less efficient performance. I think one of the reasons that companies like Ford and Toyota and VW have been slow to ramp their electric vehicle production is that they are not actually making any money on them. They will catch up eventually, but I think that may be many years hence. And in the meantime, Tesla has the opportunity to soon come out with a cheaper replacement of the Model 3, a pickup truck (probably not just the Cybertruck), the Tesla Semi, etc. etc., which might well reignite sales growth.

With a 3rd and 4th factory only coming on line this year, I think production will keep increasing rapidly for the foreseeable future, along with battery capacity to sell more home batteries and more utility-scale batteries.

Full self-driving is still some time off, but it seems likely that Tesla will get there first, there too, and if and when they do, that will have a huge impact on their sales.

I have been a Tesla bear at prices 3-4 times higher, but I think if I had to pull either a long or a short lever, it would be the long one.

DTB

Is there a point when TSLA becomes attractive?

When Cathy Wood stops buying. Or better yet when she starts selling.

Cathie Wood, CEO and CIO of ARK Invest continues to purchase shares of the falling Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) as the asset manager and her team picked up more than 25K shares of the electric vehicle giant despite its seven-day losing streak and Tuesday plummet of 11.4%.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3920883-cathie-wood-...

Full self-driving is still some time off, but it seems likely that Tesla will get there first, there too, and if and when they do, that will have a huge impact on their sales.

I think that's probably wrong. But it depends on how you define full self-driving.

I think that both Cruise and Waymo will get to widely deployed Level 4 full self-driving long before Tesla does. They're already doing so now, in very limited fashion. However, it will be TaaS, carefully monitored, and geofenced. They'll get the autonomous robo-taxis to market years before the 'Tesla Network' could ever come online - which will blow open the door for consumer sales of Level 4 vehicles, which most people will (rightly) regard as self-driving.

Tesla's aiming for Level 5 or bust. They might be the first to Level 5 - but I think that's years away. By the time they get there, there will be self-driving robotaxis available in a fairly large number of U.S. metros, which will make it difficult for Tesla to get permission to just 'turn on' a Level 5 system in a million cars without any regulator-reviewed test mileage.

Albaby

My opinion is that it is progressive democrats who buy tesla's. Not the white working class. He has infuriated progressive democrats. I know people who were planning on buying a car, and now never will. I think this will hurt his business a lot.

I agree with the above, but I'd go a bit further.

Musk has been very publicly acting as an online edgelord, intentionally pushing the line with childish/unfunny humour and Q-curious commentary. The problem is exacerbated in the case of Tesla because Musk is synonymous with the brand.


Beyond the politics issue (which is a very real concern), how many people dropping serious money on a luxury vehicle want to be associated with a CEO who is commenting on the 'tiny testicles' of X person, and otherwise acting as a public fool?

The politics issue is also more than a left-right problem. If I can help it, I'd avoid being associated with a CEO that has been publicly cozying up to the Russian side in Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and who has very publicly advocated for infantile and Russia-friendly peace solutions to the invasion (subsequent to at least one private call with Putin, no less). Left-right has nothing to do with it.

None of this is helpful for a automaker trying to increase its footprint.

I bought a very small position in Tesla way back when it was $40 a share, and got a ridiculous (and lucky/unjustified) return. I was also tempted to buy a Tesla for a spell. Both the stock and car are now a hard no go for me. I'm not the only one.

how many people dropping serious money on a luxury vehicle want to be associated with a CEO who is commenting on the 'tiny testicles' of X person, and otherwise acting as a public fool?


How many people buying a car really care about ?being associated with a CEO?, whatever he might represent? I would think that this doesn't usually matter at all. For some Tesla purchasers, it obviously matters, but I suspect that's not true for a majority of them. I personally buy a ton of products and services from companies whose CEOs have nonsensical left-wing politics I disagree with. Their politics don't stop their products from working for me anyways.

DTB

How many people buying a car really care about ?being associated with a CEO?, whatever he might represent? I would think that this doesn't usually matter at all. For some Tesla purchasers, it obviously matters, but I suspect that's not true for a majority of them.

I don't think anyone is claiming that a majority of potential Tesla vehicle purchasers are balking as a result of Musk's toxicity, but my sense is that it's quickly becoming a nontrivial number. (I include myself among them.) We've already seen how Trump's name on a building (or anything else) has gone from being a net plus to a net minus, and my impression is that Musk has reached that point, too.

For many people, their vehicle is an extension of their personal identity. It's not like buying a bag of chips. Moreover, it's fair to say that Tesla's brand and image are far more closely tied to Musk than is any other product to its CEO.

Musk's relentless unloading of Tesla shares to finance his Twitter affliction is another concern.

DTB
I personally buy a ton of products and services from companies whose CEOs have nonsensical left-wing politics I disagree with. Their politics don't stop their products from working for me anyways.

I read this statement and pondered what major spending I do and what are the CEO's politics. I decided I have no idea.

Car - Mazda, unsure
Gas - various, unsure
Food - various, unsure
Medical Insurance - unsure
College for kids - unsure
Airlines - unsure
Phone service - T Mobile, unsure
Utilities - various, unsure

If you don't mind, could you give some examples of products and purchases you make from companies with CEO's that have left wing politics?

Craig

If you don't mind, could you give some examples of products and purchases you make from companies with CEO's that have left wing politics?

I suppose they are out there, but clearly there are many more CEO's that have 'nonsensical' right wing politics.

Meta, google, and apple are supposed to lean left.

Forget about whether the CEOs are left or right wing. I don't think that is really the issue with Musk. It's that he is out there daily taking positions on any and all things, getting into pissing matches about them, and alienating potential customers and regulators in the process. There aren't many CEOs doing that routinely and vocally regardless of their political leaning.

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