No. of Recommendations: 1
As one of those sources said, the certainty of getting caught is a deterrent. But actual incarceration isn't.
But if certainty of getting caught is a deterrent, then that must mean that the consequences of getting caught matter to these folks. Yes, there's evidence that for the types of crimes that don't always result in prison sentences where you can do an A/B between prison and no-prison (which excludes nearly all violent crimes), the non-prison consequences have as much deterrent effect as the (almost always short) prison sentences. But that doesn't support a claim that if you take away the prison term for rape or murder or other serious crime, you won't reduce the deterrent effect compared to, say, probation or house arrest.
