In its early days, the shale industry was made up of dozens of companies; by the end this decade's M&A, there may be only 10 or so super-shale companies doing much of the drilling. That will further slow the sector.

What emerges from the M&A will be Shale 4.0. It will be dominated by larger but slower companies like Exxon and its archrival Chevron. The end of the oil production boom isn't the end of the industry. It will just change personality: becoming more pliant to the profit motives of Wall Street. Indeed, less output growth means better returns for the stockholders of the shale companies. As tobacco proved years ago, reducing capital expenditures ' thereby freeing more cash for shareholders ' can be very profitable.

I'm afraid that, despite the rosy projections of a world moving into net-zero emissions, global oil demand is likely to surprise on the upside. The world will come to miss the wild days of the shale boom, when shareholders lost, but consumers won.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-04...

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