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This is my personal dashboard of market conditions, using the simple indicators pulled from MI posts, Stockcharts and other sources.

As of the last couple of weeks pre-Christmas market action, the weathervane at -12 swung decidedly back to full bearish warning consensus. These conditions also indicate increased possibility for a near term bottom/bounce.

WEATHERVANE (US MKT)    -12    Get Out/possible bottom 
                                    BEARS/TOP  BULLS/BOTTOM  SINCE/Last
Intermediate-Term        
BearCatcher  Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows  Bear    8/26/22
BearCatcher  SMA Slope, S&P 500          Bear    4/29/22
BearCatcher  Dying Bullish Euphoria comb.  Bear    5/24/22
BC Summary  The Key  3                  0  
Momentum, Int  # 26 week highs                                       1/4/22
Momentum, Int  DMI                          Bear    11/26/21
Momentum, Int  10/50 Crossover                  Bear    12/16/22
Momentum, Int  MACD Weekly                  Bear    12/23/22
Momentum, Int  26W / 52W                  Bear    12/15/22
Breadth, int  PAMA Naz 50                  Bear     12/6/22
Breadth, int  Naz Bullish %                  Bear    10/28/22
Breadth, int  S&P PAMA 200                  Bear      8/6/21
Breadth Thrust  Breadth Thrust  OFF    
Correction Mode  >7% off last peak          Bear     1/14/22
Timing, Seasonal  MACD on RUT    Bull          10/17/22
Interest Rates  Corporate Bond Index    Bull          11/25/22
Leverage, Macro  Margin Debt to GDP                9/1/22
      
Short Term  Top Warning  3    
Momentum, ST  MACD Daily                  Bear    12/9/22
Breadth, sterm  PAMA20                          Bear    12/9/22
Breadth, sterm  PAMA5D %OFF 21dh          Bear    12/9/22
Top, sterm  PAMA Divergence Highs    (expired       12/10/21
Top  PAA Count              (expired)       1/26/22
Top  Recent Simple Top         '           11/19/21
Top  Primary-Tech Divergence      

FC

Short Term Top Warning 3
Momentum, ST MACD Daily Bear 12/9/22
Breadth, sterm PAMA20 Bear 12/9/22
Breadth, sterm PAMA5D %OFF 21dh Bear 12/9/22
Top, sterm PAMA Divergence Highs (expired 12/10/21
Top PAA Count (expired) 1/26/22
Top Recent Simple Top ' 11/19/21
Top Primary-Tech Divergence



Do you have some links handy for explaining the indicators you mention above?

Thanks

Craig

Sure
MACD (Daily): Moving Average Convergence/Divergence. Stockcharts link http://schrts.co/gGEanfgf When below 0 short term "demand" is negative/bearish. Very similar to PPO (which may be newer/modernized). It's good at pointing out likely tops (at extreme positive numbers) and bottoms (negative). My history of it has recorded 58 ATH 4/9/19; 21.9 1/18/19; -51 ATL 3/13-20/20 Extensive information available at Stockcharts chartschool. Frequent changes.

PAMA20 - especially on US Small Caps, this is a market breadth indicator - Percent Above Moving Averages (20 days). Best use is as a trend change indicator - when it crosses below 50 it's a warning, but also important as an extremes indicator of contrarian opportunities for aggressive traders. With a 20 day lookback, it's strictly short term. Below 30 is oversold, over 70 is overbought. https://schrts.co/mfFIFuiq

PAMA5D %OFF 21dh: Very short term bearish directional change indicator. PAMA 5 days. When stocks have been mostly positive with a high percentage above 5D MAs over the last 21 days (1 month), when that percentage drops precipitously inside of a week it's an indicator of a short term top. https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/$...

More to come.

FC

Thanks for posting the information. I was really surprised to see the number of indicators on stockcharts, several hundred at least. For those interested, type "!" into the search box and the listing will be provided. I am wondering how you selected the short term indicators you watch?

Craig

Rounding out the short term ones I pay attention to:
PAA Count - this is a derivation of a foundational indicator developed by Zeelotes. In summary, it tracks declining breadth when at market highs across a few moving averages. The higher the count, the bigger the risk. This fired frequently as the cap-weighted indexes dominated by the megacap techs hit new highs, but more stocks were being sold off in rotation. Can't give out a formulation - it's sold by Zeelotes.

Recent Simple Top - Zeelotes, November 06. it's a rolling count indicator over the last 25 days. The Rules: (http://www.datahelper.com/mi/search.phtml?nofool=y...)

1. In the last 25 market days at least 17 must have been up days
2. Today's market must have been an up day.
3. The number of up days exceeding a 1% increase cannot exceed four. Since during a strong bull market this number will be much higher. The median on the Dow from 1896 is three.

Primary-Tech Divergence: Basically, when the Naz starts throwing bearish signs (PAMAs, MACDs, etc.) while the S&P is not, or is hitting new highs.

If interested in more, take a look through the Timing Methods FAQ archive - http://mechinvesting.wikidot.com/timing-methods

How I selected the short term indicators I watch:
From a LOT of free research Zeelotes and Mungo and tpoto designed, backtested and posted on the old Fool in the mid-aughts before and after the GFC of 08.

I used several of them to suspend my use of MI screens as the market started to get ugly in early '08 through the V in 09. My biggest regret is not driving my whole portfolio off of them, "hoping" that the mutual funds I stayed in would have some downside protection as advertised. That hope cost me 10 years of then-401K contributions.

Most of them - especially simple top finder - are best used in conjunction with other indicators. When the volatility levels are like 2017, nothing related to top finding is worth following. - Zeelotes' words.

Those indicators can be
full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing....

But they worked pretty well Q1 of '23.

FC

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