No. of Recommendations: 10
What is your LEAPs BRK strategy? I thought I saw a post outlining it once but search didn't find it.
My proposed mechanical strategy goes like this:
Buy a large allocation of Berkshire stock. Preferably on a day it's not more expensive than usual. i.e., not today.
If/when it gets below 1.35 times book, sell half the stock and put the money into Berkshire options offering 2:1 leverage. Longest dated for sure, lowest strike or near the lowest strike.
Next time it gets above 1.55 times book, sell the calls, and put all the proceeds back into plain stock.
If you get within a couple of months of expiry and the valuation still hasn't reached the 1.55 target yet, roll them out: sell the calls and buy similar ones expiring two years later. It's very unlikely you'll have to do this more than once, normally the valuation level gets pretty good for at least a brief period in any four year window.
The general idea is: when cheap, go to 1.5x leverage. Next time valuation is good, go back to 1:1 (no leverage).
Another much more aggressive approach: Pick a big allocation, but not ALL your money. Put half your allocation into the longest dated, lowest strike calls. Put the other half into calls expiring a year earlier than that.
Each time a bunch of calls get within 1-2 months of expiry, sell them and buy different calls expiring two years later. (so you're only every rolling half the position in any given year). Try to do your trades on a day when the stock price is high and the market is calm. If you can't do that, then you may need to cough up more cash to do the roll. (that's why you don't put ALL your money in this strategy). If the stock price is quite high, you can roll up to higher strikes and still get a fairly good implied interest rate, so you free up cash.
That's it. Do it forever, or at least until they stop offering options, or the interest rate built into them is too painful. You will occasionally have up five years with no gain, but on the other hand you will probably make a LOT of money on average over time. From time to time you'll be rolling up to a higher strike, so the strategy will throw off cash while you never reduce the number of shares you own. This is very aggressive, but on the other hand it has worked for me for a long time : )
I'm running at something like 23.5 years at around 26% IRR, mainly through a mix of buying lots when it's cheap, lightening up when it's expensive, and using the leverage built into calls. But I've had a five year stretch of zero return along with gritted teeth. It's not complicated, but it's hard. My position isn't worth any more than it ever was...I simply spend the month it throws off : )
Jim
