Post New

On December 10, 2020 I posted the following poll on this board's predecessor:

5 years from now, which of the following do you think will be worth the most (defined by market price)? All choices sell for roughly $340,000 at this moment.

In alphabetical order:

18.8 Bitcoins
1 BRK-A
940 SNOW
930 SPY (with dividends)
590 TSLA

Poll results were:

44% (32 Votes) 1 BRK-A
22% (16 Votes) 930 SPY (with dividends)
18% (13 Votes) 18.8 Bitcoins
9% (7 Votes) 940 SNOW
5% (4 Votes) 590 TSLA

---

Notes:

SPY's starting price needs to be dividend adjusted.
TSLA's had a stock split 3:1.

---

Anyone up for the task to calculate the returns?

Update December 17, 2022

After two years Berkshire is in the lead:

BRK-A +33.7%
SPY +8.4%
Bitcoin -7.5%
TSLA -21.8%
SNOW -60.1%

44% (32 Votes) 1 BRK-A
22% (16 Votes) 930 SPY (with dividends)
18% (13 Votes) 18.8 Bitcoins
9% (7 Votes) 940 SNOW
5% (4 Votes) 590 TSLA

...


BRK-A +33.7%
SPY +8.4%
Bitcoin -7.5%
TSLA -21.8%
SNOW -60.1%

So far, this seems to say something about the voters on that old poll: they weren't so dumb.
Note the near one-for-one correspondence between the order of choice popularity and the order of returns so far.

Best fit:
Return to date = (original fraction of votes) * 2.1 - 51%

If anything, the biggest error so far was giving T&T a bit too much credit for SNOW's prospects.
It was an unpopular choice, but not quite unpopular enough.

Of course, the fat lady has not yet sung.
Time will tell.

Jim

So far, this seems to say something about the voters on that old poll: they weren't so dumb.
Note the near one-for-one correspondence between the order of choice popularity and the order of returns so far.

Interesting observation. Intriguingly good fit.

But perhaps, for a poll like this, returns at a certain point in time also has something to say about volatility?
Cannot help but notice the giant shooting star on SNOW on December 8, 2020, as well as the rapid run up on TSLA.

So, out of curiosity, I looked at the update on this poll in two alternate universes.
In those, the poll was posted on a Thursday a few weeks earlier. 12/11 instead of 10/12.

Returns as of Friday 11/11/2022:

        at open  at close
BRK.A   +36.8%   +39.5%
SNOW    -39.1%   -32.2%
TSLA    +34.4%   +42.8%

(Pen and paper math, so please forgive me for not including all of them.)

Which makes me wonder. Could there be a less noisy, yet fair and agreeable, complementary way to calculate interim results for a long-running challenge?
Something simple that tries to take random spikes and volatility into account, while still being true to the original poll?

Nothing important.. just, well, there's a dilemma in this that I find interesting.

Yeah I remember the spike in SNOW at the time, it is probably why I included it in the poll.

It is what it is, a snapshot observation that one can't read too much into, although it is fun.

If I wanted to read more into it, I'd say that the poll participants knew that at the time SaaS and TSLA stocks were soaring, but remained sceptical, rather than getting carried away by what was fashionable at the moment.

The difference in the result when you change the starting date prove one thing : the price you pay is an important determinant in your investment return. Lots of peoples forget it when they buy fast growing stocks.

4 years in!

This challenge was originally posted on December 10, 2020, a moment of market exuberance for SaaS stocks, that is why SNOW was included.
BRK-A traded at $340,000 at the time, as did:

18.8 Bitcoin
940 SNOW
930 SPY
1770 TSLA (3:1 split adjusted)

Poll results for the winner were:

44% (32 Votes) 1 BRK-A
22% (16 Votes) 930 SPY (with dividends)
18% (13 Votes) 18.8 Bitcoin
9% (7 Votes) 940 SNOW
5% (4 Votes) 1770 TSLA

Actual results after 4 years:

Bitcoin	+453%	CAGR	+53.4%
TSLA	+118%	CAGR	+21.5%
BRK-A	+102%	CAGR	+19.2%
SPY	+75%	CAGR	+15.0%
SNOW	-53%	CAGR	-17.20%

Wow. Make of it what you wish.

Post New

US Policy FAQ

---

Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.