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Orban will win again and the Leftist chatterati just doesn’t get why
Contrary to received opinion, the Hungarian prime minister remains popular among ordinary voters. Here’s why
Tibor Fischer
Tibor Fischer
Published 09 April 2026 8:00am BST
Related Topics
Hungary, Viktor Orban, Germany, European Union
Detractors insist that Viktor Orbán success is down to foul play Credit: Peter Kohalmi/AFP
Could the general election on Sunday in Hungary be the end of Viktor Orbán’s 16-year term as Prime Minister? Of course it could. Hungary’s a democracy, although many of those now cheering on Péter Magyar’s Tisza Party have steadfastly maintained that Hungary gave up on democracy a long time ago. German Greens mostly. The Germans have a long tradition of intervening in other European countries, maybe it’s time they quit the habit.
The word authoritarian is applied to Orbán a lot. Chiefly by pundits who know bugger all about Hungary or the meaning of the word authoritarian. And because journalists love to copy the homework of others. The adjective they’re struggling to find is successful. Success is precisely why Orbán’s so hated by the international Left.
In 1998, Orbán became the youngest democratically elected prime minister in Hungarian history. He was 34, leading a party he largely created out of nothing. His opponents were the former Communists who had waltzed off with all the loot after the collapse of the Soviet bloc.
Born and raised in the countryside, Orbán was the first in his family to go to university. He didn’t have uncles working in ministries or big companies in Budapest. The only political figures that come close to him are Hungarian aristocrats from the 19th century.
He lost in 2002, but after eight years in opposition, he was re-elected in 2010. With a crushing two-thirds majority, which allowed him to modify the constitution. The two-thirds clause was only there because no one had believed it was possible to achieve that. He got another two-thirds majority in 2014, 2018 and 2022. Even if Orbán loses this time, he remains the GOAT (greatest of all time).
JD Vance and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban
If Orbán does lose the election, it still would not diminish his success Credit: Jonathan Ernst/AP
This is the curious thing about Orbán’s detractors and enemies. They simply cannot come to terms with the reality, the basic truth that he is genuinely popular (the only Hungarian politician who is) and very good at what he does. They obstinately insist, flat-earther style, that his success is down to foul play.
It’s rather like saying Ronaldo only scores goals because everyone, his team, the opposition, the officials, the commentators, the crowd, the refreshment vendors, the parking-lot attendants, the meteorologists are all in a conspiracy to make him look good.
Most of the cheerleaders for Tisza are unaware that, currently, they don’t have a single seat in the Hungarian parliament. Not one. Tisza chickened out of recent by-elections. They do have a handful of MEPs (whom, oddly, Magyar has referred to as “braindead”).
The poll putting Tisza well ahead, that has excited so many Western observers, was conducted by Median. Median is the brainchild of Endre Hann, who was a member of a now-defunct Left-wing party, the SZDSZ, that included former Maoists and Trots, and who entered into a governing coalition with the survivors of the Communist party.
To a great extent, Orbán is fighting himself. Sixteen years in office means you’ve probably done something to annoy or disappoint many voters. Orbán himself has admitted there have been own goals and mistakes. The economy is not in a robust state. Finally, in a democracy the electorate just tires of you.
Péter Magyar’s campaign is entirely “I’m not Viktor Orbán”, although Tisza is mostly Fidesz reverse-engineered.
Péter Magyar
Péter Magyar is trying not to come across as too pro-EU and pro-Ukraine Credit: Attila Kisbenedek/AFP
The Hungarian electoral system is fiendishly complicated, a mixture of PR and first-past-the-post. You vote twice, so you can vote for a local candidate in your constituency because you know and like the individual, but then vote for a different party on the party list. It can produce unexpected results.
A Tisza victory would either be disastrous or extremely disastrous for Hungary. The second, third and fourth names on their party list are, after Magyar, respectively, an opera singer, a zookeeper and a hotel manager. I could imagine any of them being good constituency MPs, but because they are on the party list, they won’t have constituencies, they’ll be sitting in parliament or a ministry.
On reflection, maybe being a zookeeper is the ideal training for a politician.
It’s often overlooked that Orbán spent 16 years in opposition, building, personally vetting candidates, nurturing talent. He also did the same during his 20 years in power. He’s had very mixed results with his staff. Most of his woes have come from his wobbly or inept underlings. Magyar has only had two years to recruit (when he’s not getting thrown out of nightclubs or shagging in strangers’ bedrooms).
The best result for Hungary would be a Fidesz government with a tiny majority to curtail the hubris and tomfoolery, and an opposition with some true bite. It will be close, but my hunch is that Orbán will get one more victory.
The most perspicacious, if bleak, analysis has come from the Hungarian rapper Dopeman: “You’ll vote for Tisza because your life is s--t. The day after Tisza wins your life will still be s--t. If Orbán wins, your life will still be s--t, but less s---ty than if Tisza wins.”
