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Author: UpNorthJoe   😊 😞
Number: of 1128 
Subject: Inflation numbers reliable ?
Date: 07/18/2025 9:45 AM
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link to blog by Noahpinion. I'm not very familiar with him, have seen a few of his posts on
Barry Ritholz site.

Personally, my bias is that I don't believe any numbers that the Trump admin puts out.
Others may feel different. But it's hard to deny that Trump admin is cutting funding for
the handling of the tremendous amount of data that pours into places like the BLS. Trump is
cutting staffing for departments like these.

Where would you all look to see accurate inflation numbers if they output
from the Trump admin is just garbage ?


https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/at-least-five-intere...

snips:

"U.S. inflation data is getting patchier"

"since Trump came into office, he has made sweeping cuts to the government agencies responsible for collecting our economic data, including the all-important Bureau of Labor Statistics:"

"A key federal agency responsible for tracking how the country fares…is beginning to show signs of strain…The Labor Department has scaled back data-collection efforts that feed into its statistical bureau’s monthly inflation estimate"

"Already, the BLS is being forced to cut corners. The percent of prices that the agency has to “impute” (basically, guess from other prices) has risen from 9% before Trump took office to 35% now"

"It probably bears repeating at this point that things like CPI are incredibly important…Trillions of dollars worth of inflation-protected US government bonds (TIPs) are linked to them. Social Security payouts are based on them"

"the less accurate the inflation numbers get, the more the administration can just claim that the real numbers are much lower. We’re not yet in “record grain harvests, comrade” territory here, but we could be heading in that direction."
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Author: WendyBG   😊 😞
Number: of 1128 
Subject: Re: Inflation numbers reliable ?
Date: 07/18/2025 10:24 AM
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I have a real concern about the reliability of inflation numbers. They are a fat target for Trump.

1. High inflation is a political negative for Trump since it can be blamed on his policies (tariffs, removal of immigrant work force) causing higher prices.

2. Higher inflation will cause the Federal Reserve to resist lowering the fed funds rate.

3. Higher inflation will increase the annual adjustment for Social Security which costs the government a lot of money.

4. Higher inflation increases interest payments on TIPS and I-Bonds.

5. Higher inflation will cause bond investors to demand higher interest rates for long-term bonds, regardless of the fed funds rate.

I would be surprised if Trump did NOT pick this low-hanging fruit by firing/ threatening the BLS statisticians.

Wendy
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Author: weatherman   😊 😞
Number: of 1128 
Subject: Re: Inflation numbers reliable ?
Date: 07/18/2025 3:16 PM
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trump may do this, but MAGA\gop wouldn't care about real or manipulated inflation anyway (as far as taking any action against trump).
trump promised lowering absolute prices on most\all things, and they havent even complained about that.
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