No. of Recommendations: 1
Though small in the scheme of things, the Canada-China deal showed how third countries must swallow their misgivings about China if they want to hedge their dependence on the U.S. As Prime Minister Mark Carney noted in Davos, “not every partner will share all of our values.”…
I wonder if the threatened 100% tariff on Canadian goods would include oil? The tariffs announced last spring put a 10% tariff on Canadian oil, but 25% on Mexican. Mexico pivoted to selling to other customers. Most of Canada's oil is landlocked, the US is the only outlet.
The nearest substitute for Canadian is Venezuelan. I posed a piece on the Policy board about a major push on to increase Venezuelan output, in a matter of months from now.
Steve
output from the net sifter wrt oil tariffs
As of early 2025, U.S. tariffs on Canadian crude oil are generally set at
10%, part of broader, shifting trade measures. While initial 2025 orders imposed this 10% tariff on Canadian energy products, these policies are subject to ongoing negotiations, with potential exemptions under the USMCA and threats of higher rates.
Key details regarding tariffs on Canadian oil:
Initial Action: In March 2025, the U.S. implemented a 10% tariff on Canadian crude oil and natural gas, with higher 25% tariffs on Mexico.
Current Status (2026): Reports from January 2026 indicate threats of up to a 100% tariff on all Canadian goods, including energy, depending on trade negotiations between the U.S. and Canada.
Impact: The 10% tariff was estimated to add significant costs, potentially affecting U.S. refinery operations and consumer prices.
Exceptions: Some crude oil volumes may have been exempt if they qualified under United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) preferences
