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The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: Knighted ✧  😊 😞
Number: of 6243 
Subject: Re: Market high
Date: 06/27/25 12:48 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 7
Something that's been bouncing around in my head for a while:

Do you think the collective market could be pricing in massive expected productivity growth over the next ~10 years driven from AI, which would make current prices relative to pretty much any valuation metric look highly inflated for companies that are best positioned to benefit. Companies which, in this case, may also be the largest ones with the most expertise and capital, like the S&P500?

An analogy would be a single high growth company like Amazon trading at a rich premium to their current earnings for years, because the market is anticipating high future earnings growth - which in some cases does materialize. But in this case, we're talking a large swath of companies in a position to grow rapidly as beneficiaries of AI.

In that scenario, if AI expectations were to deliver, today's overinflated valuations could quickly turn into reasonable valuations in the near future with rapid earnings growth, without a crash along the way. (To the detriment of anyone who limited market exposure due to valuations.)
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This community has written 6,224 posts about Mechanical Investing. The article-length ones it recommended most:
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