Invite ye felawes and frendes desirous in gold to enter the gates of Shrewd'm, for they will thanke ye later.
- Manlobbi
Stocks A to Z / Stocks T / Tesla (TSLA)
No. of Recommendations: 0
greatly curious if any musk fanboyz made a link of last gasp tesla sales to EV credit deadline.
No. of Recommendations: 3
greatly curious if any musk fanboyz made a link of last gasp tesla sales to EV credit deadline.
Obviously it is a last gasp for US sales, or at least, some of that last gasp will come in Q4 (you just need to have made a deposit on a model before Sept 30, but the sale of cars delivered after Sept 30 will be booked in Q4). And then, it is quite likely that there will be a drop-off in US sales of model 3s and model Ys. And for Tesla to do well, we willl need something new, like:
-a new, cheaper model which is apparently pretty much ready to go
-more high-margin (close to 100%) of the FSD package, as its performance improves with version 14
-recovery of Tesla sales oversease rebounds, as displeasure with Musk wears off
-robotaxis and cybercabs
-the Semi, with the completion of the Nevada facility by the end of 2025 and ramping in 2026 (expected capacity 50,000/y, up to 300,000 pre-orders)
-growth in solar/battery sales
-Optimus robots
Seems like a pretty deep bench.
No. of Recommendations: 1
And for Tesla to do well, we will need something new, like:
-a new, cheaper model which is apparently pretty much ready to go
-more high-margin (close to 100%) sales of the FSD package, as its performance improves with version 14
-recovery of Tesla sales, as displeasure with Musk wears off
-Robotaxis and Cybercabs
-the Semi, with the completion of the Nevada facility by the end of 2025 and ramping in 2026 (expected capacity 50,000/y, up to 300,000 pre-orders)
-growth in solar/battery sales
-Optimus robots
Seems like a pretty deep bench.
[a couple of typos corrected]
Also, I should have mentioned, no reasonable Tesla investor (although your ‘fanboyz’ characterization suggests that you think that the intersection between ‘Tesla investor’ and ‘reasonable investor’ is a small one) can imagine that the plausible growth in car sales could ever justify a share price that is currently 281x trailing earnings.
The only way you can get enough earnings to make the current share price make any sense is by getting most of them from the items lower down on the above list. So the uptick in Q3 USA sales from credits expiring is mostly irrelevant. Investing in Tesla right now is a guess about how well the products currently under development will pan out. My guess is quite well, but we will probably see in the next few months.
DTB
No. of Recommendations: 1
actually yes, i feel the retail intersection is small.
there are 1-2 well respected growth investors that put recently put money into tesla.
they have always been explicit about their poor batting average and volatile slugging average, thus right sizing holding at cost. they are explicit in how such a strategy may work only at a portfolio level, and put no effort in pumping any 1 holding.
so these are not fanboyz. than dont run on an ever changing story going back to when all of tesla's profits were going to be on new car sales, exceeding the profits of all their competitors, etc...
