I concur with Baltassar's calculation that the ESBD signaled a 'Major Bottom' Friday - those were the same numbers I calculated!

For the current version using the Mean & Standard Deviations the math works out as the following...

    %Hi-%Low Mean = 1.163% 20051027 through 20250328
    %Hi-%Low SD   = 6.685%

    MinorBot = 1.16% - (2*6.685%) = -12.21%
    MajorBot = 1.16% - (4*6.685%) = -25.58%
    ExtrmBot = 1.16% - (8*6.685%) = -52.51%

Of course a good approximate version would be just -12.5%, -25% & -50%. The exact numbers are probably not all that important - we'd all notice a %Hi-%Low = -49% as being extreme-ish in any case, so I'd expect anything in that ballpark would suffice. It's more just a somewhat formal way of defining/testing a thought process & frequency of firing.

(One other thing I should probably do, as the current formulation is a little dynamic (the mean & SD change slightly over time) is that a copy of past performance should be created for the values that were active then. Once I get a bit more time I'll do that also - it'll only be a little more s/sheet work to take an additional copy under those circumstances - s/sheets are great!)

Platy

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