No. of Recommendations: 12
Yes the "let me tell you my superb performance" chants will be on the extreme side this year. Of the two forums I read, the other one being dominated -very wisely - by Fairfax in recent years, the "I'm up!" figures will be off the charts. I have owned Berk since Jan 10, 1975 and Fairfax since March 4, 1994, so I've seen the good times and not-so-good.
Business value change vs stock price change, it is always enjoyable to witness the divergence.
I enjoy thinking things such as "What's the chance of stock prices X years from now at least temporarily jolting down below today's quotes?" My guess is Fairfax's price being lower is somewhat less than Berk's being lower, but it isn't really meaningful at all if you are long term. Both businesses, whatever their value is today, seem ok to me. But the future squote yearly performance figures of both are going to go way-way-way-way down from recent years...at least in my view.
But compared to Mr. Market I think Berk and Fairfax will compare well.
Away from even the most promoted stuff today...I remember the euphoria around Pfizer's incredible drug pipeline in the late 1990's - and today it is Lilly. Check Pfizer's last 20 chart for entertainment.
But there are so many FOMO limited supply "assets" with no income or profits and Wall Street is one heck of a selling platform. These "assets" and the TT in my view will put the dot-com era to shame.
Business value and economic reality both are of little importance when the chase in on. The faster the flashy prey runs the more it will suck in everything and everyone. Parents will likely sell the braces off their children's teeth to join this parade before it ends.
Life is great...
...if you can stand it!
