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Everyone knows by now that the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran.

How will the attack on Iran impact the Macro economy and markets? It’s not at all clear that there will be any impact considering that Iran’s oil has been sanctioned by the U.S. for years. Or maybe the repercussions will upset the markets. Will we have another 1973 experience?

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/28/business/energy...
Oil Shipments in Persian Gulf Already Disrupted by Iran Attack


Tankers have begun to steer clear of the region and the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to push up energy prices.

By Rebecca F. Elliott and Peter Eavis, The New York Times, Feb. 28, 2026

The widening military conflict in the Persian Gulf quickly began to disrupt shipping in one of the world’s biggest oil-and-gas producing regions, threatening to send energy prices soaring.

Oil markets were closed on Saturday when the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran that spurred retaliatory strikes across the Middle East.

But shipping companies quickly began trying to steer clear of the region and the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway on Iran’s southern border through which ships typically carry about one-fifth of the world’s oil and a significant amount of natural gas to market…

Analysts widely expect global oil prices, which ended Friday near $73 a barrel, to climb considerably when markets open on Sunday evening. Prices are already up about 20 percent so far this year.

The big question is how long prices will remain elevated. …[end quote]

The conflict could disrupt shipping via the Red Sea (due to Houthi attacks) as well as the Strait of Hormuz.

But it’s really too early to say how long the disruptions will last and how they will affect the world economy and markets. Because it’s a weekend the markets are closed but there’s still a pop in the price of oil and flight-to-safety in Treasuries and gold.


https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.ht...


The markets have apparently front-run the attack since the U.S. moved major sea power to the area over the past week.

Wendy

There seems to be no news that any of the warring parties has hit any of the oil or gas fields.

There are no reports on the straits being closed or how the warring is happening around the Strait of Hormuz.

But it’s really too early to say how long the disruptions will last and how they will affect the world economy and markets. Because it’s a weekend the markets are closed but there’s still a pop in the price of oil and flight-to-safety in Treasuries and gold.

The intent appears to be a bombing campaign, only. There are no more than a handful of US troops in theater, and Iran has about three times the population of Iraq.

Closest analog that comes to mind is Libya, where the EU bombing campaign allowed all the local poisons to break out, pitching the country into chaos, and sharply curtailing oil production for several years.

The Libyan campaign was in 2011

Crude Oil Production for Libya

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LBYNGDPMOMBD

The Helots are out in force this afternoon:

US strikes in Iran could see oil prices jump $10 to $20 or more with no deescalation, Trump says Khamenei is dead

Futures on Brent crude (BZ=F), the international pricing benchmark, had jumped by roughly 2.9% to close above $72.80 on Friday, while those on US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude (CL=F) had moved up by a slightly smaller 2.8% to trade above $67 by Friday's close.

Without signs of deescalation over the weekend, prices could surge upward by as much as $10 to $20 per barrel when the market reopens Sunday night, Jorge León, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, told Yahoo Finance.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-strikes-in-iran-...

Steve....long big oil

There seems to be no news that any of the warring parties has hit any of the oil or gas fields.

A map of strikes I posted on the policy board showed Kharg Island as one of the targets. Drop a few bombs, and the tanker insurance companies will make it uneconomic to lift oil there.

There are no reports on the straits being closed or how the warring is happening around the Strait of Hormuz.

There seem to be two schools of thought on that topic.

IRGC tell ships passage through Strait of Hormuz 'not allowed'

Vessels in the Gulf reported receiving messages warning that no ships were allowed to pass the Strait of Hormuz, according to EU and UK agencies, though Iran has not confirmed any closure.

https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-888294

Steve

Closest analog that comes to mind is Libya, where the EU bombing campaign allowed all the local poisons to break out, pitching the country into chaos, and sharply curtailing oil production for several years.

Found a table of Iranian oil production, by year, going back to the late 70s.

Data for the years around the revolution, in million barrels per day:

December 31, 1985 2.205M
December 31, 1984 2.043M
December 31, 1983 2.454M
December 31, 1982 2.397M
December 31, 1981 1.321M
December 31, 1980 1.479M
December 31, 1979 3.218M
December 31, 1978 5.302M
December 31, 1977 5.714M
December 31, 1976 5.918M
December 31, 1975 5.387M

https://ycharts.com/indicators/iran_oil_production

We old phartz remember the price of gas at the pump doubling. According to the net sifter, Iranian production had dropped to 2.5Mbpd, in early 80, just from internal chaos. The Iran-Iraq war started in September 80 (there is a hilarious story about an Iraqi chemical plant in Basrah and a field salesman at the pump seal company)

Steve

Most likely, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard does not have control over the straits.

https://www.facebook.com/reel/1537622670659111


Surprise development France has surrendered amongst the Israel Iran conflict. They just do not know to who yet.

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