No. of Recommendations: 8
Expect more in a second Trump term. Trump now knows how to get his agenda done. In 2016, Trump planned on 2 million deportations. This time, with the newly discovered Alien Enemies Act of 1798, Trump is planning on 15 million deportations.
Trump also has a plan to defund through impoundment. This gives Trump leverage over many companies that either want less regulation, more subsidies, or more government contracts. Musk has said $2 Trillion in cuts out of the $6.9T budget. Musk will deregulate by firing all the regulators, starting with the S.E.C. staff that has pestered him for years, just like Twitter. Everyone gets a flame thrower, more pollution, snake oil, and fewer meat inspections. 2024 Outlays:
$2.8T will be cut to $0.8T in:
Medicaid $750 billion
Other mandatory $1096 billion
Nondefense discretionary $948 billion
categories not cut:
Social Security $1452 billion
Medicare $903 billion
Defense $849 billion
Net interest $892 billion
These are significant changes to the $29T U.S. economy. I suppose the fired government employees can take the construction jobs the deported people held. Trump will make backroom deals with individual companies that want to avoid the chaos (like Apple asking for special tariff treatment). Healthcare will suffer from the Medicaid cuts and Obamacare defunding. Startups will decline because of less research. Homebuilders won't have enough workers. Mainstreet will be neglected, with less investment. Companies with Washington contacts will do well, with special bespoke deals. Oil producers will benefit from fewer regulations, but won't like the 50% lower prices. Let the kleptocracy begin.
=== links ===
Trump says he’ll undertake the ‘largest deportation’ in U.S. history. Can he do that?, Oct. 24, 2024
"In May, Trump told Time magazine he would target 15 million to 20 million people who he said are living illegally in the U.S. The nonpartisan Pew Research Center estimates the actual number to be about 11 million as of 2022. More than 2 million people have entered the country illegally since then. “Let’s start with 1 million,” Vance told ABC News in August. During his entire presidency, from January 2017 to January 2021, Trump deported about 1.5 million immigrants, according to a Migration Policy Institute analysis of federal figures — far fewer than the 2 million to 3 million he speculated about deporting in a 2016 interview as president-elect. The Biden administration is on pace to match Trump’s deportation numbers."
https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2024-10-24/..."On Day One, President Trump will direct federal agencies to identify portions of their budgets where massive savings are possible through the Impoundment Power, while maintaining the same level of funding for defense, Social Security, and Medicare."
https://www.donaldjtrump.com/agenda47/agenda47-usi...An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/60419 