No. of Recommendations: 11
And so far…Russia has been able to replace their equipment and keep feeding in men.
And every day they’re there, the Ukraine isn’t a whole country.
Of course. Again, smaller countries don't beat the invading countries because the invading country is physically unable to maintain their military occupation of some or all of the smaller country. They win because they inflict enough constant damage that it becomes unavoidably clear that the invading country is worse off by trying to stay. The mujahedin didn't make it impossible for Russia to keep feeding helicopters and other military equipment into Afghanistan, for example - they just made it obvious that if Russia were to stay in Afghanistan they would have to endure constantly losing all those helicopters and other military equipment into Afghanistan indefinitely, and that made it not worth it for them to stay.
The rest of your post (and virtually everything you’ve said in this thread) hinges on the Ukrainians being able to survive a long, grinding war of attrition.
Which is overwhelmingly the most likely outcome as long as they continue to receive support from NATO.
Russia's major difficulty is that most of Ukraine's capacity to fight isn't subject to attrition, because it's coming from NATO countries. They're not fighting this war solely with resources generated from their own economy or industrial base. They're fighting it with resources generated from inside NATO, beyond the reach of Russia's military. That capacity can't be degraded over time by any Russia does on the battlefield. They can't slowly destroy Ukraine's factories or munitions plants, because they're mostly outside the military theater.
Russia's path to victory doesn't lie in the battlefields of Ukraine. It lies in trying to get enough people in the West to accept the argument that you've been trying to make - Russia's going to win anyway, so better to just let them win now rather than keep fighting. If the West keeps supplying Ukraine, Russia will eventually choose to leave - but if the West stops supplying Ukraine, Russia would be able to destroy their army and possibly achieve their goals.
