Subject: Re: Charts and predictions
Berkshire's valuation levels have been much lower since 2008, so that makes the best predictor. It suggests that the next two years should be expected to be inflation - 1.4%/year...

I did a one-year forward model the same way. It suggests one should expect inflation - 9.6% in the next year. Ouch. That is based on the assumption taht valuation multiples will average around what they've averaged since 2008, which we might think of as "low", but it's not a terrible assumption.

Since I've gone out on a limb to share what those models say, I might as well go much further out there and forecast a complete price trajectory for the next two years. This is done totally by eyeball, but it passes through those two forecast data points. I have pencilled in inflation of 2.83%/year in the next two years (MCT inflation was 2.36% in the year to May). The result seemed extremely pessimistic, so I also did it again with just a pinch less dire fall-off, giving an expected average price range for each period.

Nominal dollars assuming constant low inflation, not today's dollars.

2024-07 $424
2024-10 $413
2025-01 $403 - 406
2025-04 $395 - 402
2025-07 $395 - 404
2025-10 $403 - 410
2026-01 $414 - 419
2026-04 $425 - 427
2026-07 $436

This should be good for a belly laugh over the next couple of years. It does suggest that there will probably still be lots of opportunities to buy at prices under $400 per B share, for those who like their veggieburgers on sale.

For whatever it's worth, this is what the equivalent real values might look like with inflation at 4.25%/year.
2024-07 $424
2024-10 $414
2025-01 $405 - 408
2025-04 $399 - 406
2025-07 $400 - 410
2025-10 $410 - 417
2026-01 $423 - 427
2026-04 $436 - 438
2026-07 $448

Jim