Subject: Re: OT: regress to the mean
Jim wrote: Hmm, I beg to differ.
I wouldn't expect anything less. :)
What I find sad is that many, like Jeremy, and Hussman, and innumerable others, seem to be able to raise important points, and wax eloquent on the risks inherent in the markets at any particular point in time, but then, with their management, significantly underperform the market itself. It doesn't surprise me. Isn't it somewhere around 90% of all actively management mutual funds and ETFs do the same. They just can't seem to beat SPY.
Jim added: His fund performance isn't great. Roughly market tracking 2000-2017, for example, poor but positive since then last I checked.
SPY has a return from 1/2/2028 to present of 13.45%. The average of his funds that I calculated have a CAGR of 5.7%. This is significant under-performance!
Jim wrote: But to suggest that someone with a fund return history showing a low CAGR is not able to provide useful and thoughtful commentary on finance and investing...
I don't deny that it can provide thought provoking ideas that may cause me to spend a day exploring something I may not have thought of. So useful? Sure. But if a local auto mechanic seems to always be on the side of the road broken down in his own car, I'm much less likely to trust him with my own vehicle.
MULTI-ASSET CLASS Type Symbol Conception Years Begins 6/28/2024 ROI CAGR SPY 2018-2024
Benchmark-Free Allocation Fund Mutual Fund GBMFX 7/23/2003 21.0 $6.56 $26.83 309% 6.95% 10.58% 2.96%
Global Asset Allocation Fund Mutual Fund GMWAX 10/22/1996 27.7 $9.92 $33.07 233% 4.44% 9.60% 4.09%
EQUITIES
Climate Change Fund Mutual Fund GCCHX 4/5/2017 7.2
Emerging Markets ex-China Fund Mutual Fund GMOEX 12/9/1993 30.6 $4.06 $25.33 524% 6.17% 10.37% -0.60%
Emerging Markets Fund Mutual Fund GMAUX 10/18/2021 2.7
Global Developed Equity Allocation Fund Mutual Fund GWOAX 6/16/2005 19.1
Global Equity Allocation Fund Mutual Fund GMGEX 11/26/1996 27.6 $3.30 $28.89 776% 8.18% 9.35% 6.16%
International Developed Equity Allocation Fund Mutual Fund GIOTX 6/5/2006 18.1
International Equity Allocation Fund Mutual Fund GIEAX 10/11/1996 27.7 $5.15 $29.07 465% 6.44% 9.60% 2.84%
International Equity Fund Mutual Fund GMOIX 3/31/1987 37.3 $1.79 $24.58 1275% 7.28% 10.59% 4.93%
International Opportunistic Value Fund Mutual Fund GTMIX 7/29/1998 25.9 $3.37 $14.94 343% 5.91% 8.21% 3.60%
Quality Cyclicals Fund Mutual Fund GMAEX 5/12/2020 4.1
Quality Fund Mutual Fund GQETX 2/6/2004 20.4 $4.24 $32.97 678% 10.57% 10.06% 15.05%
Resource Transition Fund Mutual Fund GMOYX 2/15/2023 1.4
Resources Fund Mutual Fund GOFIX 12/28/2011 12.5
Small Cap Quality Fund Mutual Fund GSBGX 9/20/2022 1.8
U.S. Equity Fund Mutual Fund GMUEX 9/18/1985 38.8 $0.23 $14.88 6484% 11.39% 11.65% 12.25%
U.S. Opportunistic Value Fund Mutual Fund UUOAX 12/13/2022 1.6
U.S. Quality ETF ETF QLTY 12/13/2023 0.6
U.S. Small Cap Value Fund Mutual Fund GCAVX 7/2/2019 5.0
Usonian Japan Value Creation Fund Mutual Fund GMAKX 9/14/2020 3.8
SPY 13.45%