Subject: Re: Venezuela - Who and How
I'm om the same spot, and I think the reason it looks like there isn't a short term strategy, is because there isn't a short term strategy. So we are saying nice things, but - why rule out Machado? That was likely the deal made. Machado and Gonzolez are out it seems, and we focus on the oil. It's much easier to develop the oil with the Chavismos and Bolsichicos cooperating and benefiting. Good transaction.

My guess right now.

I mean - that's certainly one possibility, but it's an absolutely crazy proposition for the Administration to entertain. Why would anyone in the Administration think that would actually happen? Going into this, they would have to know that it was highly unlikely that the Chavismo government would even agree to start cooperating with the U.S. (and Rodriguez' address today kind of bears that out). The almost certain outcome was that if the Maduro government is left in place (just without Maduro) that no deal would be on offer.

But even if they did, the oil companies wouldn't really be in a position to go in and invest many billions of dollars over several years with the Chavista government remaining in place. How do you figure you won't just get nationalized out of your new investment and have all those shiny new assets seized, the way you were back in the day? I mean, Rodriguez is probably as Marxist as Maduro ever was. It's not like taking out Maduro - and just Maduro - will turn Venezuela into a safe place for multi-year multi-billion dollar investments. I mean, it's probably a rough financial proposition to make major investments in oil infrastructure anywhere, with WTI oil at only $57....but this seems like a particularly rough sell to your investment committee.