Subject: Re: Let’s See If This Pans Out for Putin
No, the way you punish Russia is to build up our relationship with India so they choose to divest themselves of Russian oil in a way that makes sense for them. If you sanction them with a "them or us" binary and force them to choose "them," then you strengthen not only Russia but China as well.

Oh, okay. So how long is that?
Remember that there is a running clock here. What kinds of great deals are you going to offer India and how long will it take to move them away from Russia? How do you prevent them from double dealing?

And what about China? They can bankroll Putin on their own.

As has been explained to you ad nauseum, he doesn't have to push Putin out.

And what should be obvious to you that in Realpolitik possession is 9/10 of the law.

History is full of examples where a small power that lacked the guns, dudes, and money to militarily force out a larger power were still able to win their military objectives merely by making it sufficiently painful for the large power to remain. Which is why Russia didn't win in Afghanistan, the U.S. didn't win in Vietnam (or Afghanistan), and why Iraq isn't a liberal western democracy allied with NATO.

Ahh. So you think this war is exactly like the last war. Do you think the Russians didn't learn anything from their own Afghanistan adventure, or ours? Or us in Iraq?
What might they do differently this time?

Let's say you're living behind enemy lines near Mariupol and you want to do some serious Red Dawn style sh1t. But Putin knows that there will be people ready to do that so he's taken your son and daughter away from you. What now?