Subject: Re: WOW! Fetterman At It Again
I don't know the answer, since there's so many different types of steel and the military has very specific needs. But I don't know that it's cut and dried.

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This is the lesson everyone learned the hard way between 2018 and 2021 after Trump raised tariffs on Japanese steel to "protect" American steel workers. Steel is not steel is not steel is not steel. It's not a totally fungible commodity because there are DOZENS of varieties all used in large quanities that have very distinct properties optimized for different functions. Not every variety can be made by every plant and it is not cost-free to switch from producing one variety to another at a given plant if it is possible at all.

The minute tariffs went up on foriegn steel, who got hammered? American manufacturers who needed varieties of steel only produced overseas. Instantly, prices went up for their raw materials and those hikes flowed directly to the cost of goods sold. That raised prices for those goods IN America and put those makers at a disadvantage in international markets cuz no other makers in other countries faced the same price hike on those varieties of steel.

One of many examples proving that Trump knew nothing about economics and trade then and hasn't learned anything since.

Should this deal be allowed to go through? I'm not sure. I'm not sure how many varieties US Steel still makes and how those fit into any strategic uses for defense (special armor, special needs in ships and submarines, etc.). It could be the case that apathetic management over decades has held off on modernizations and investments and US Steel plants have evolved to only making the cheapest, lowest margin varieties that other makers don't want to waste their modern plants creating that can make higher margin stuff.

In general though, if we learned ANYTHING during the supply chain lockups during COVID, it should have been that there is some theoretical minimum set of "stuff" whose production would likely best remain on domestic shores to ensure access and steady supplies in the event of an extended interruption in international shipping. What if a terrorist bombs a tanker traversing the Suez canal, blocking shipping for 2 months while someone figures out how to cut up the carcass of a dead boat stuck in 72 feet of water? Or if China becomes more aggressive in Southeast Asian waters, having a large share of our domestic steel needs having to thread through that region might not be the best idea in 5-10 years.


WTH