Subject: Re: Jim's bottom detector
It's probably valid to note that many mechanical statistical models should not be assumed to be valid during times of business/economic/geopolitical turmoil this large, as it's not sufficiently analogous to other events within the history we consider.

Yes. Generally when there is an economic calamity (great recession, Covid, excess inflation, tech bubble) there are folks working to improve the situation.
In the current instance, it is not at all obvious that the people running the show want to improve things.
That makes you think that the past is no predictor of the future, which we know anyway.

(There is probably a parallel universe somewhere where today, Mr. Trump doubled down on reciprocal tariffs rather than pause them).


Mark