Subject: Re: Jim's 'annuitization'
'The 5% Berkshire share may be a good strategy for today. But will Berkshire still be good in 20 years?'
My 2 cents- I personally feel as good about a very large position (70% of our investable assets) in BRK going forward as any other option.
Warren has painted and built this masterpiece for nearly 60 years and imo esp. over the last 25 years he has thoughtfully built it to last for many decades- Diversified Insurance with Huge cost-free float, Largest railroad in BNSF, BHE-forward thinking with tremendous growth potential and tax credits and Greg Abel's expertise, 360B in high quality equities where the large positions seem built to last (AAPL, KO, AXP, CVX, OXY, BAC, Japanese trading houses), a huge position in cash/ cash equivalents and a very diversified MSR group. BRK is built to weather nearly any storm.
BRK now has $1T in current assets. Chris Bloomstran estimated it will produce $54B in normalized earnings this year. Jim's data points towards returns of inflation +7-8% on average. BRK will continue to be a cash (and allocation) machine. WEB and Charlie have developed the culture and blueprint and hand picked outstanding and proven leadership from within BRK. Greg and Ajit each own over $100M each of BRK stock which they bought. The Board is outstanding and highly aligned with Warren's vision and owners as well. I also think we have an outstanding group of shareholder owners who are well informed and passionate about BRK and it's culture.
20 year prediction is a long time, but I honestly feel very comfortable going forward, well beyond the Buffett and Munger era. Warren has said he loves having 99% of his assets in BRK stock and he wants very satisfactory ongoing growth for the 5 foundations he supports. Charlie also has said essentially that Warren has so brilliantly painted this masterpiece that of course he has it well positioned to prosper well into the future and advised the Munger family to never sell their BRK shares.