Subject: Re: Intel (INTC)
Also, a 3-5 yr price target of 40-65, somewhere between a double and triple from the current price of $21.

I think they will likely revise that target range downwards, given the most recent round of rather terrible news, which I think came out after VL's last (June 21) revision of the INTC data page. I wasn't expecting a good year at Intel, but the outlook is really impressively terrible, well beyond the worst case guesses of most people.

I think perhaps the latest big swoon in stock price has been magnified due to cancelling the dividend, since perhaps there was a large population of holders who were thinking "sure things haven't gone well lately, but to heck with the price, at least I'm getting my coupons until they recover". But with zero coupon? As those folks leave the building, and it's not a small population, a whole new set of shareholders has to be found to replace them. While that takes place, there is reason to suspect the price will unusually weak--the leavers are pushing on the door, and the entrants are thin on the ground.

If looking for a silver lining, it's possible that the price weakness during that process of shareholder replacement is temporary, and (barring any new bad news, always possible) the price might settle somewhat higher once they income folks have finished selling. Much like the usual weak price you see for a while on a small spinoff: the main shareholders couldn't be bothered with a small position in a business they weren't really interested in, so they all ditch it at the same time. Then the new smaller stock gets known for itself, and has a new audience.

Jim