Subject: Re: Tariffs
Absolutely yes. The few remaining old school GOP are unlikely to oust him, as they still see the chaos that would ensue from a call to open the Speaker's Chair as a bad thing. But from the MAGA side of the conservative coalition, chaos is the point. So as soon as Johnson steps away from MAGA orthodoxy - or doesn't respond quickly enough to a change in MAGA orthodoxy - he's gone. And chaos in the House will ensue.

It's hard to predict things, especially the future.

If the economy tanks due to the launch of this trade war, Johnson will face competing - and unreconcilable - pressures. His frontline members will desperately want the Congress to take back tariff authority and fix things. But his MAGA members will want him to trust the President, and Trump will want to throw him out of the Speakership if he tries to undo the tariffs.

But complicating that is that Trump and the MAGA members can't afford for the House to go into chaos until the One Big Beautiful Bill has passed, which is some time away. They need a functioning majority. They can't afford to go into another Speaker selection process, where the frontline members insist on having a vote on the tariff bill as a condition of supporting a candidate and the MAGA members insist on the contrary.

So who knows?