Subject: WSJ sings the blues
Cross-posted from METAR with live links.

https://discussion.fool.com/t/...

The Wall Street Journal is usually bullish. Today… not so much.

https://www.wsj.com/livecovera...

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Stock Market Today: Trade Threats Send Dow Down 500 Points
U.S. dollar weakens further; airline stocks in focus after outlook cuts

Last Updated: March 11, 2025

…
Fears about a recession sparked a selloff Monday, with sliding tech shares spurring the Nasdaq Composite’s biggest loss since 2022. President Trump declined to rule out a recession on Sunday and said his economic shake-up would result in a “period of transition.”

“It was a really emotionally charged decline,” said Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies. But she added that “this is more than just a brief pullback that we’re going through.”…

https://www.wsj.com/economy/tr...
Wall Street Fears Trump Will Wreck the Soft Landing
The economy’s pilot has a new message: Fasten your seat belts

By Nick Timiraos, March 10, 2025

… President Trump and his senior advisers in recent days have signaled indifference to rising risks that trade uncertainty chills private-sector investment. They have argued a “detox” might be needed in spending and hiring, that falling stock values aren’t a big worry, and that inflation could rise in the short run…

https://www.wsj.com/economy/co...
Consumers Keep Bailing Out the Economy. Now They Might Be Maxed Out.
Recession fears rekindle concerns that Americans are overstretched on debt

By Telis Demos, March 11, 2025

…
Yet investors suddenly have fresh concerns. For one, Americans’ inflation-adjusted debt burdens are starting to grow further beyond prepandemic levels on a per-household basis. As of the fourth quarter of 2024, the average household’s credit-card debt surpassed $10,000, adjusted for inflation, for the first time since 2009…

In a February survey of consumers by the Federal Reserve, respondents on average thought that they had 14.6% chance of not being able to make one of their minimum required debt payments over the next three months, which is the highest level since April 2020…[end quote]

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/re...
Will There Be a Trump Recession?
Economic signs are mixed, but his willy-nilly tariffs have markets worried.

By The Editorial Board, March 10, 2025

…

These WSJ articles cite many data points that together add up to a danger of a slowing economy, possibly recession. Goodbye, soft landing!

The stock market has been in a bubble for a long time. Is this the beginning of a 1999-2000 type burst? VIX is spiking and Bullish Percent is plunging. The 3-month and 2-year Treasury yields are falling faster than longer durations which implies near-term fear of recession. The Fear & Greed Index is in Extreme Fear.

Risk is very high of a stock market crash. However, the financial stress index is still low so there’s no current danger of a financial crisis.

Wendy
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St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index

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