Subject: No, the Iranian Oil IndustryIsn't About to Ex
A cogent explanation of why Iran is acting like the blockade won't cause material permanent damage to their oil industry. Excerpt:

Back in 2019-2020, during the first Trump administration, Iran had to cut production significantly but was able to restart its wells without significant problems over the next few months, eventually lifting total petroleum output in 2025 to a 46-year high. That recovery is the best indication that talk about permanent damage is wishful thinking. The 2020 experience is invaluable now, as the country’s engineers will have learned from previous mistakes. In some ways, the maximum pressure campaign of five years ago means that Tehran is better placed today to survive the blockade.

For sure, Iran is likely to incur extra costs as a result of the disruption to output, and the amount of oil it can eventually recover from its reservoirs may be lower than otherwise — but that’s a problem for 2035, 2040 or even 2050, not 2026.

Robin Mills, a petroleum consultant with experience in Iran and a background in geology, says the blockade won't "cause catastrophic, or even very serious, damage" to the country's oil wells. "If and when the blockade is relaxed, Iran will probably be able to resume production promptly at about 70% and regain most of its pre-war capacity within a few months," he said.

Iran is under pressure economically, but the blockade is unlikely to deliver the silver bullet that Trump yearns for.

https://archive.ph/epSKZ#selec...