Subject: Re: Have Bear Catchers worked post-discovery?
Is the only component of GTT a 43 week SMA?

43 week SMA for sell/buy timing signals.
The GTT paper uses 12 month SMA, I prefer 10 month (43 weeks).

Sell signal ignored if BOTH these FRED indexes are positive YOY.
INDPRO Industrial Production Index, Index 2012=100, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted
RRSFS Real Retail and Food Services Sales, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted

If *either* is down YOY, then you are to obey any SMA sell signal.

In a nutshell, you only consider selling if the SMA is negative when the economy _might_ be in a recession. When the FRED indexes both indicate the the economy is _not_ in a recession, then stay invested (do not sell) regardless of the SMA.

The GTT paper is long and confusing. There are sites that present the meat without the fluff and exhaustive data.