Subject: SPY Versus Buffett's Berkshire:
" Buffett's Track Record With Major Market Calls
If you think you can't time the market by such a simple thing as valuation, this history of Buffett's market calls will disabuse you. His premise in every case was simple and always the same: the impact of valuation. Here are his major decisions in chronological order:

In 1969 Buffett closed the Buffett Partnership having made a 30% per annum return since its beginning in 1956. He explained that he could no longer find cheap stocks of the kind he had been buying. He kindly gave a seminar to partners on muni bonds to all who wanted it. The market: the one-decision never-sell Blue Chips were selling at more than 50 times earnings and on the way to the largest crack up since 1929.
In a 1974 interview with Forbes he didn't quite endorse the market as a whole but said that he could again find quality stocks at cheap prices. The market rallied but did not exceed its old high. Buffett's last words were, "Now is the time to think and grow rich."
In late 1999 he was alone among the high powered investors at Sun Valley, Idaho, and listened for a while before saying that the dot.coms were incredibly overpriced and those who owned them would eventually pay a terrible price. The others at the conference paid no attention and cited the huge possibilities of techs. Buffett didn't even tout Berkshire which he saw as overpriced then as he clearly does now. The Crash began in 2000 and finally bottomed in 2003. The decade beginning in 2000 had a negative annual average return of -0.9%. Oh, and Barron's published an article in December 1999 titled "What's Wrong With Warren?" It wasn't alone in that opinion. The NASDAQ bottomed out with a loss of more than 75%, not too far from the 89% the Dow fell from1929 to 1932.
In 2007 Buffett expressed caution about Mortgage Backed Securities and said he would not know how to value the many tranches. He declined a request from the Fed and Treasury to assume control of failing financial institutions but began buying near the bottom. On October 18, 2008, he published a New York Times Op-Ed piece entitled "Buy American. I Am." It marked the bottom of the crisis which would be tested in March 2009.
Since the second quarter of 2024 Buffett has sold $139 billion of Berkshire's two biggest holdings, Apple (AAPL) and Bank of America (BAC) adding to a cash position which reached $334 billion or about one third of Berkshire's trillion market cap. He hasn't given a full explanation but the facts speak for themselves. By raising the cash level he built a wall around Berkshire making it certain that along with the fact that most of the rest of its assets were wholly owned subsidiaries in safe industries. Berkshire thus became one of the safest stocks to own. Buffett hasn't bought back any Berkshire stock since Q2 2024, however, making it clear that he doesn't see Berkshire as being cheap and doesn't recommend buying at its present price.
That's quite a record. Buffett accurately called every major Crash leading to a mega-bear market since 1929. He also never called for any Crash and mega-bear market which didn't happen. He was a bit early in both words and deeds, but close enough to do extremely well and give very helpful advice."

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