Subject: Re: Pfizer a permanent presence
The excess death rates are statistically significant, correlation between rates and vaccine use and the uptick in those countries and timing of vaccine issuance.


Are you referring to some particular study?

I haven't done an exhaustive search, but looking quickly, I found this, which seems to confirm that there's a correlation, except it's a negative correlation: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/p...

Excerpt from the abstract: This study aimed to investigate the relationship between COVID-19 vaccination coverage and all-cause excess mortality in 178 nations during the first two years of the pandemic. Multiple regression analysis, after adjusting for life expectancy at birth, confirmed a significant association between higher vaccination coverage and lower all-cause mortality rates (𝛽 = −106.8, 95% CI −175.4 to −38.2, 𝑝 = 0.002). These findings underscore the importance of vaccination campaigns in reducing overall mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Here is another study showing the same inverse correlation, i.e. more excess deaths in countries with low vaccination rates, in Europe: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/p...


Perhaps there are other credible studies that find the reverse?

However, I don't really think these kinds of studies are the best for identifying cause and effect. It could just be, for instance, that rich countries got vaccines first, and they succeeded in keeping excess deaths low, for all sorts of reasons unrelated to vaccines, like better health care for instance. I would be much more convinced by studies looking at death rates within an individual country, comparing vaccinated people to unvaccinated. And here, the data is also pretty one-sided, showing clear protection from vaccination. Here is an example, although there are many others, all showing strong protection: https://www.scientificamerican...

In this study, death rates in the unvaccinated, as of March 2022, were 17 times higher in people unvaccinated, compared to people vaccinated 3 times. I think the true effect might be even stronger - these data were standardized for age, but at all ages, people particularly vulnerable to death (immunosuppressed people and people with chronic diseases) are much more likely to be vaccinated (they know they are at risk of dying and not many of them were willing to take a chance and get covid without protection*.) So the population of people who were fully vaccinated would be expected to have more mortality, not less. Vaccine protection was so effective, these sicker populations ended up having way less deaths, more than overcoming their risk from pre-existing diseases.

The other thing to mention is that the correlation will probably fade, and maybe disappear, now that almost everyone has natural immunity (from getting infected), which is probably stronger immunity than what you get from the vaccine, anyways (not everyone will agree, but I believe this is true.) It is much safer to get the vaccine and THEN get infected by covid, and you can save a lot of lives that way. But once you have survived covid, as most will, whether they are vaccinated or not, the vaccinated and unvaccinated end up having relatively similar immunity against covid. In fact, you are probably safer to have no vaccine and a survived infection than having just vaccination with no natural immunity. So in the first year or two after vaccination, we see more deaths in unvaccinated people, but in vaccinated people who have not yet been infected, they still have to face the danger of covid, which is a smaller danger than if they weren't vaccinated, but will still kill plenty of people. So there should be a big excess of deaths in the unvaccinated for a year or two, and then a small excess of deaths in the unvaccinated, not because of the vaccine, but just because they got their infection later on in the pandemic than the unvaccinated who likely got infected quite quickly. I haven't seen any study that confirms my hunch, but I suspect it is true.


Regards, DTB


*I must have seen 200 patients getting chemotherapy in the last few years, and I can't remember a single person declining the covid vaccine. If you are young and healthy, you can scoff at covid: it really is a small risk. But if you are getting on in years, or have cancer, or MS, or Crohn's disease, you have to really have a powerful philosophical objection to vaccination to turn down a chance at saving your life.