Subject: Re: A thought
The high growth expectations are already baked into the stock's price. To overperform, the company would have to exceed the high expectations. This is difficult. I would expect a backtest to show that moderate growth stocks do better.
What is "reasonably valued"? In backtests, momentum often boosts returns. Buying low-momentum stocks does not seem to work in general.
Just based on a straight average of S&P 500 stocks, the Healthcare and IT sectors have the highest average estimated growth (future 5-years). Consumer Staples and REIT have the lowest average estimated growth.
Ticker Company Name [Sector] [SalesY1] [Growth] [sectGro] [Mo] [sectMo] Sector
UNH UNITEDHEALTH GROUP 35 400,278 5 19 -46 7.2 Health Care
AAPL APPLE INC 45 416,161 12 17 21 22.0 Information Technology
DOW DOW INC 15 42,964 -13 14 -45 -5.3 Materials
JPM JP MORGAN CHASE & CO 40 166,775 8 13 26 5.0 Financials
GOOGL ALPHABET INC CL A 50 350,018 15 12 82 2.9 Communication Services
UPS UNITED PARCEL SERVICE 20 91,070 5 12 -24 5.0 Industrials
XOM EXXON MOBIL CORP 10 340,568 12 11 0 -0.9 Energy
AMZN AMAZON COM INC 25 637,959 18 10 12 6.8 Consumer Discretionary
DUK DUKE ENERGY CORP 55 29,934 7 8 11 14.8 Utilities
AMT AMERICAN TOWER CORP REIT 60 10,127 23 6 -8 -7.8 Real Estate
WMT WALMART INC 30 680,985 8 4 21 -3.5 Consumer Staples
https://gtr1.net/2013/?~Sector...
Create [Mo]: [Total Return % over 252 days]
Create [Growth]: [SI EPS Growth Est]
Create [Sector]: [SI TRBC 2 Digits]
Create [sectGro]: [Average [Growth], grouped by [Sector], at step5]
Create [sectMo]: [Average [Mo], grouped by [Sector], at step5]
step0: [S&P 500 Member; lag=1 days] == 1
step1 to step6 are deblanking
step7 keeps largest SalesY1 in each Sector.