Subject: Re: Self-delivery
But is the company there yet? Have you seen the videos of Robotaxis driving through left-turn lanes, bumping other cars and stopping in the middle of the street for no obvious reason, except maybe the glare of the sun? Given the fact that there have only been a few dozen of these cars driving around for a few days, it seems hard to believe they are quite there yet. Do you have some other explanation for this?


I've been watching their FSD progress very closely for the last five years. Without AI Tesla is worth at most a few hundred Billion. It's hard to know why AI models do what they do but programmers have gotten much better in the last year understanding where hallucinations are coming from and how to fix them. In the cases you describe my guess is that the models are simply doing what humans do: glare in your eyes you slow down. Of course the car can still see fine but the humans that it's trying to mimic can't ... so the FSD ends up slowing down too. What do you do when you start to make a wrong turn? Look around and see if you can salvage it. With no traffic conflicts you cross a few yellow lines and get back on course. No guess on what went wrong in the other instances. After thousands of near perfect rides I'd say the beta test is going very well. Of course they have Billions of miles travelled in their data banks to draw training from and test their new builds. So, it's not just a dozen cars driving around Austin. Seems to me that ever since they went "nothing but net" they've been hitting their targets and seem very confident about FSD's success. Also seems reasonable to me to ignore past failures in their timelines - Elon did warn a few years ago that he now believed that they would have to solve for a limited AGI for FSD to work. Now he's saying that he expects artificial superintelligence to be solved this year or next. The pace of progress in AI in extremely fast right now. Buffett wants the fish dumped out of the barrel and waits until they stop moving before he shoots. I want in before the full diaper crowd figures out what's happening.