Subject: Re: What are we missing?
In the past 25 years, I have experienced 3 times when the overall market drops about 50%. Right now, I would say the chance that may happen again in the next 4 years is about 30-50% (pure guess). It is true that going back to the market after it has dropped is not as easy as it sounds and sometimes you may miss the whole cycle, and end up worse off than not doing anything at all. Treating it as a probability and taking certain actions by percentage is better than betting for sure one way or the other.