Subject: OT: Question for Jim on gold
Both gold and Bitcoin are on the rise. One would expect this sort of action during a period of concern about existential events to currency or personal safety - neither of which seem imminent to most of the Western world (though hysteria can certainly affect people's feelings).

I just came across this (biased source, but presumably accurate information):

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/...

Moscow plans to cut funding for its federal aircraft and helicopter production program by 1.6 times in 2026, from 139.6 billion rubles ($1.7 billion) to 85.7 billion rubles ($1 billion), according to Russian media, citing a draft of the new federal budget for 2026-2028.

The budget proposal shows that spending will continue to decline in 2027, dropping 21% from previously planned levels – from 109.7 billion rubles ($1.3 billion) to 86.9 billion rubles ($1 billion). A slight increase is projected in 2028, with allocations rising to 89.3 billion rubles ($1.1 billion).

One of the most significant reductions will affect state subsidies for Russian airlines to renew their domestic fleets. These payments will be cut to zero in 2026, compared to 1.3 billion rubles ($16 million) allocated in 2025, already down from the originally planned 4.1 billion ($50 million).

Support to offset aircraft maintenance costs will also be reduced, from 6.1 billion rubles ($75 million) in 2025 to 3.6 billion ($44 million) in 2026. However, the figure is expected to rebound to 6.6 billion rubles ($81 million) in 2027 and 2028.
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I'm wondering if counterparties which provide goods and services who are not willing to barter for oil (and considering Russia's difficulty in getting large quantities of USD) may be demanding gold (or Bitcoin) as payment.

Source: World Gold Council: Gold Reserves in Russia remained unchanged at 2329.63 Tonnes in the second quarter of 2025 from 2329.63 Tonnes in the first quarter of 2025. Gold Reserves in Russia averaged 1181.88 Tonnes from 2000 until 2025 (March 2025, valued at over 228 billion USD.), reaching an all time high of 2335.85 Tonnes in the second quarter of 2024 and a record low of 343.41 Tonnes in the second quarter of 2000.

In the context of the costs of the Ukraine war (and considering that, since presumably these numbers were reported by the Russian state and might be obfuscated) they might be having a substantial burn rate.

Just an idle thought - what do you think?

Jeff