Subject: Re: An Open Hormuz: We Hardly Knew Ye!
Yep. Brent now back to over $100 per barrel, as it's clear that virtually no traffic is actually getting through the Strait right now.

I suspect that Iran will get to have their cake and eat it. The Saturday meetings between the U.S. and Iran in Islamabad appear to still be on, and apparently Trump spoke to Netanyahu earlier today to try to get him to scale back the attacks on Lebanon - so there's a decent chance that we won't resume our own attacks even though Iran never opened Hormuz. They get about a week of ceasefire from the U.S. without having met our precondition. That helps them enormously by pushing any resolution of the war (either by resumed conflict or negotiation) a week further into the time when all the in-transit oil is gone - the last ships that left the Gulf before the Strait closed will have reached their destination shortly. The pressure on actual markets is really going to rise from here, as the energy crisis that's been pending finally starts hitting.