Subject: Re: OT: S&P versus T-Bills?
Fair odds for rolling two dice and getting two ones would be 11/1 (or 1100, using the American (Moneyline) odds, meaning that for $1 bet each time, you would make $11 for each snake eyes and lose $1 for any other roll. So in 144 rolls, you would win 12 times (with winnings of $132), but you would lose 132 times (for losses of $132), breaking even.

I'm not sure those are the correct snake eye odds. 1/6 chance of rolling a "1" with each die, so 1/36 (1/6 x 1/6) of rolling snake eyes.

From Sports Geek - https://www.thesportsgeek.com/...

Snake Eyes Prop Bet

Prop bets are known as single-roll bets. A snake eyes prop bet is a wager that the next roll will be snake eyes. This is also referred to as an Aces bet.

The payout is 30:1 against your wager. Since there is a 2.78 percent chance [Ed note: 2.78%=1/36] of the next roll being a two, it’s not a great bet from a probability perspective.
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But back to QQQ vs QQQE, why do you have to choose? We've had some good recent discussions of using moving averages to flip between "Cap weight" and equal weight, and Jim threw out a set of MA's for SPY vs RSP (I think he settled on 20/90 EMA?). I played around with it and will implement something slightly shorter for both numbers. And you can play around with QQQ:QQQE and come up with something reasonable too. I'm going to do a 75%:25% portfolio weight (in IRA's) based upon those MA's.
Here's a QQQ:QQQE ratio from stockcharts you can start playing around with:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...

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