Subject: Grantham: In which stage are we?
Concerning BRK naturally too, so not really OT: Jeremy's last "Superbubble" piece is now 4 months old and at the moment we - and Berkshire - are still "alive and kicking":

https://www.gmo.com/americas/r...

First, the bubble forms; second, a setback occurs, as it just did in the first half of this year ..... and valuations take a half-step back. Then there is what we have just seen ' the bear market rally.

On which he elaborates later in the piece:

Bear market rallies in superbubbles are easier and faster than any other rallies. Investors surmise, this stock sold for $100 6 months ago, so now at $50, or $60, or $70, it must be cheap. Outside of the late stage of a superbubble, new highs are slow and nervous as investors realize that no one has ever bought this stock at this price before: so it is four steps forward, three steps back, gingerly exploring terra incognita. Bear market rallies are the opposite: it sold at $100 before, maybe it could sell at $100 again

Interestingly that's what I regularly read lately on Saul's board: Though posts about valuation over there are banned, on the "new" TMF board the leading figures posting their year end portfolio summary extensively did talk about valuation, and it's usually along the lines "Ok, valuations apparently DO matter, but our companies are still great and now, with their prices nearly 70% down in 2022, they are cheap". They still don't do valuations, the companies are cheap because the share prices are lower, in line with what Grantham says.

That's not limited to Saul's. I remember that a few months ago, at the end of the "old" TMF boards I similar posts here and on the "Falling Knifes" board, kind of: "After that extreme fall BABA now is sooo cheap, GOOGL now is sooo cheap ... DIS ... AMZN ... " etc.

On with Grantham:

Fourth and finally, fundamentals deteriorate and the market declines to a low ...... in the U.S., the three near perfect markets with crazy investor behavior and 2.5+ sigma overvaluation have always been followed by big market declines of 50% ...... these few epic events seem to act according to their very own rules, in their own play, which has apparently just paused between the third and final act. If history repeats, the play will once again be a Tragedy

It's worth reading the article as he also talks about deteriorating economical environment, shrinking margins etc.

So, is he right and all set for "a Tragedy"? What are the opinions and comments here after quite an interesting year we just had (I'd love to set up a poll :-) ?