Subject: New Memo from Howard Marks: Is It a Bubble?
" Trying to Get to a Conclusion


There can be no doubt that today’s behavior is “speculative,” defined as based on speculation regarding the future. There’s also no doubt that no one knows what the future holds, but investors are betting huge sums on that future.


In that connection, I want to say a little about the unique nature of AI. The AI revolution is different from the technological revolutions that preceded it in ways that are both wonderful and worrisome. It feels to me like a genie has been released from a bottle, and it isn’t going back in:


AI may not be a tool for mankind, but rather something of a replacement. It may be capable of taking over cognition, on which humans have thus far had a monopoly. Because of this, it’s likely to be different in kind from prior developments, not just in degree. (More on this in my postscript.)


AI technology is progressing at an incredibly rapid clip, possibly leaving scant time for mankind to adjust. I’ll provide two examples:"


https://www.oaktreecapital.com...