Subject: Re: Barrons on Railroads and Tariffs
Heck, even CHECKERS players know to look further than the next move.

I suppose sometimes the difference in views comes in how many steps and years you look down the line. The US has decided to act like a bully by using its size force partners and long standing friends to do what it wants them to do. It isn’t afraid to humiliate them if they can or berate them into doing what they want. Reminds me of the behavior of the head of a school gang that wants to assert dominance.

If the next step you are referring to is that the use of tariffs as a threat with longstanding trading partners is capable of getting them to do things you want as a first effect, you can certainly see that happening right now. But what’s the next order implication after that?

If you thought the US was no longer a friend but was instead turning into a bully, who is now insulting you, withholding aid, and becoming unreliable and unpredictable, what would you do? You might seek other friends with whom you try to strike mutually beneficial trade deals that don’t include the US, you might look to improve your relationships with others whom you previously shunned because they weren’t as aligned with your values as the US, and you might might resent the US to work against their interests out of personal pride or animosity.

You won’t see those things as quickly and the next order impacts can span decades. The US achieved privileged status in international trade not just because of its strength but because it allowed other countries to flourish under the canopy of its hegemonic military protection and willingness to be a reliable, open market for countries trying to recover from WW2. There is no lead for things to always be that way but belligerent bully wasn’t anything that anyone in the field of international political economy was expecting or recommending. What is remarkable is how quickly it’s already starting. Columbia has already increased diplomacy with China. The EU has already started striking bilateral and multilateral trade agreements that aren’t anchored by IS participation. Mexico and Canada are trying to figure if they should ally to be a counter to a solo US in negotiations. The US is so powerful that many of these things won’t work, but it’s remarkable how quickly allies are trying to figure out how to counter the US if necessary.