Subject: Re: Foreign currency predictions from HSBC
It may be safe, but it doesn't provide much return at all. If I am reading the stats correctly, it looks like over the last ~16 years (since 2008/9), it has returned about 1% annually. That's pretty low, especially when considering that it has a 0.5% expense ratio!

Sure. My having suggested it is predicated on the notion of preservation of purchasing power in the face of sundry currency risks, not a great return.

Since inception in March 2008 it has returned 1.01%/year in USD. But the USD was quite low when it started, and has risen 1.76%/year since then despite the dire 2025. So the total return in "global purchasing power" has been 2.77%/year after fees.

Most people lose money on hedges and attempts to find safety, so I figure any positive return at all is not really that bad all things considered.

Especially when you factor in how many of those intervening years had substantially negative interest rates for so many countries' government bonds. They're not so bad now. Current average YTM and YTW are both stated at 6.56%. It's not a great number to consider, but FWIW the trailing twelve month cash distributions amount to 5.53% of the current price, before tax. Rather surprisingly for an ETF, it's currently trading at a 10% discount to NAV, and has been at a discount most of the last couple of months. I guess the arbitrage is difficult for the authorized participants.

Jim