Subject: Re: trump getting bet again,
STARTS as the favorite, I never disputed that. Would she win it, no way.

I think she would be the most likely to win it.

Harris was in a terrible position in 2020. Joe Biden had all her voters. As a former prosecutor, her only "lane" was the moderate/center of the party - Warren and Sanders had the left lane blocked. But Joe Biden had so much more pull on the non-progressive side of the party, in no small part because he was the sitting Veep. He had the 30% of the party that Harris needed locked in the entire time she was in the race (he led every poll before she dropped out). She couldn't get past Biden to the right, and when she tried to pivot to the left she found that Sanders/Warren had all the oxygen.

So when she starts as the favorite in 2024, who comes in and beats her? Someone running to her left probably can't win in 2024, when the party is moving away from hardcore progressive positions on immigration and crime due to voter dissatisfaction. And it's almost impossible to run to her right because of her advantages as the sitting Veep - there are no radical centrists, so centrist candidates tend to win on experience and existing relationships/political power.

Yeah, she's most likely to win it even if Biden drops out. The sitting Veep is usually the safe pick for the moderate/centrist wing of the party to rally behind, and 2024 was always going to be a cycle where the nominee comes from the moderate/centrist wing of the party.