Subject: Re: Jim's bottom detector
Did you run the bottom detector in the '08-'09, or '01 era? Curious if the major indicator fired then, and how "big" was the register.

Yes.
I've posted all my signals since then, though I guess most of those posts are gone with the wind.

The signals have generally been good since I created the model, the main flaw being that in serious "waterfall" panics it gives some too-early signals on the way down, like 2008-10-07. (even though things were indeed higher a year later)
I have made it a little stricter, trying to filter some of those out, but you start missing things.

There is certainly a whiff of panic in the air, but the signal is still pretty far from triggering. I don't think we're at capitulation. That takes a while.

Because of the clustering of signals, I tend to call it a "buy" on the first day after a stretch of signals that it *doesn't* trigger.
Consider this stretch of major bottom signals:
2022-09-23 major bottom signal triggered
2022-09-26 major bottom signal triggered
2022-09-27 Good day to buy?
2022-09-28
2022-09-29 major bottom signal triggered (a variant older version of the signal also triggered this day, not the others)
2022-09-30 Good day to buy if you missed the first one?

That stretch was the last time it triggered. Great buy signal if I do say so myself.

Jim