Subject: Re: Vance Failed. No Deal.
Oh, and they’ll likely set up a blockade if some sort of Iran wants to close the straits.

Yep - that's what Trump announced. Which makes sense. We obviously lack the ability to open the straits, despite claims to the contrary - so we might as well also have a role in them being closed.

I hope that the Administration has a plan to deal with the two obvious risks to doing this. The first, of course, is the devastating global economic impact this will have. We're now at the point where nearly all the oil that was in transit before the war has reached its destination port. So now starts one of the biggest energy crises in modern history (Trump does love to do things that are record-breaking, never in history). It's going to be destructive for everyone - and particularly the Gulf states who are along with Iran going to lose a lot of their revenue.

The other risk, which is hopefully a little more remote but potentially far more dangerous, is China. We can impose a blockade, but the real test is what happens if a Chinese-flagged ship shows up - perhaps escorted by Chinese government or military vessels. When that happened with a Russian-flagged ship in Cuba, we stood aside; and perhaps that's what we would do if Chinese ships showed up to the Gulf. But otherwise, it will be a very fraught situation. Given China's energy trade with Iran, and their desire for that to continue, they have a lot of incentive to try and have that happen. They also must be aware of how dangerous that would be, though, so maybe they hold off.