Subject: Re: Double digits
Thanks Jim for this post.

Buffett has said that 10% returns long term for Berkshire is an aspirational goal. Why do you think that BRK would return a certain amount over inflation? It seems to me that BRK will return over time close to its ROE. Buffett has said that holding BRK does offer some modest inflation protection which certainly implies that above a certain level of inflation, the stock will not perform so well in terms of real returns.

Anyway, I think BRK from here grows high single digits in share price over the next say 20 years. This is irregardless of what inflation is over the next 20 years. Real returns will be high single digits minus whatever that level of inflation turns out to be. While the share price will be unpredictably irregular, its value per year will increase each year.

I also think BRK total returns will be similar but maybe a little better than S@P 500 but will occur in a somewhat less volatile way. Also, since for now, no dividend being paid leads to better returns from BRK in a taxable account over that 20 year period.

Cheers,

Brian