Subject: Re: OT: Hershey
It’s the sort of business I could see myself adding to, if there was a general market decline and it got even more attractive and critically holding until death do us part. Also might not fall as much as the general market in a crash**.
...
** not much sign of a crash in US equities over the next 12 to 18 months with inflation moderating, and an election coming.

I think a big decline in the broad US market in that time frame is a fair bit more likely than you do. But nobody knows, yet. We'll see.

However, it's true that in the past Hershey has held up better than most things during tough times.

Hershey 2009 low versus average price in 2007: -33.9%
Same measure for average S&P 500 company (RSP): -58.2%
(For Berkshire: -42.2%)

Hershey 2020 pandemic low versus average price in second half of 2019: -25.8%
Same measure for average S&P 500 company (RSP): -34.4%
(For Berkshire: -24.6%)

The future may not rhyme at all, but hey, I'd rather have a good omen than a bad omen. In the past they dropped less than most things.

The "dumb guy" case is that it's ~25% cheaper than the average since 2001 based on earnings (which is pretty steady for these guys).
And that sales/share, cash flow/share, and EPS are all projected to grow at 9.5%/year in the next few years according to the optimists at Value Line. Much like the last 5 or 10.

The smarter guy case is more as you said: it is a very resilient business which has not experienced a lot of fundamental change, and is pretty unlikely to do so.
Note that they have very low net assets. It's a business so good they don't really need many.
Their business metrics to date certainly make a good prima facie case for a solid and lasting moat.
I doubled my position today. Presumably the price will keep falling for a while longer.
And like you, I hope to keep the position for a long time. I might lighten on a price spike if there is another opportunity, but most of it I hope to throw in a corner and forget about for a few years.

Jim