Subject: Re: OT: NVDA
Maybe the numbers will be something like +30%, +25%, +25%, -3%, -20%, -2%, 0%, +15%, +17%, etc instead?

Indeed. The trajectory might be anything.
My own approach uses the average real EPS 5-10 years out. Those numbers could be all the same, or wildly varying. I sort of assume there will be a bad year or two in there, but don't try to model it explicitly. Since we don't know what they'll be, assuming a smooth trajectory is as good as any other assumption--you can at least get a feel for whether that trend seems plausible.

It's pretty surprising to think about, but the earnings in the next few years don't really matter much for the value of a share. (gasp!) They're useful mainly for trying to estimate the longer term, and evaluate how well the business model is already working.

I use a terminal multiple approach not because the later earnings don't matter, they dominate in fact. I stop there because I don't think there are any companies predictable enough past the decade mark. If you can't predict that far, you can't predict that their growth will still be above average, so you might as well assume that their valuation multiples will be relatively ordinary by then. Since you have your valuation multiple to use, you don't need the list of later earnings. I assume it will always be something in the teens, unless something has gone horribly wrong.

Jim