Subject: Google’s Gemini 3
I guess with Berkshire's investment in Google it's appropriate to post this article about the implications of the release of Google's Gemini 3 on this board:
https://www.bridgewater.com/re...

The “Barnes & Noble moment” is getting closer. The “resource grab” phase, and associated sums of investment, is currently being driven by a small number of leading AI players recognizing the incredibly transformative power of AI. The next phase will come when a major business outside of the AI ecosystem realizes that its entire business model is about to collapse due to pressure from an upstart competitor using AI (as occurred with Amazon disrupting Barnes & Noble). At that point, every business will have to spend existentially to adopt AI technologies and configure them into their business model—creating the potential for levels of investment and productivity growth unlike anything we’ve ever seen. Current frontier AI models are still not easy to work with, and require technical skills, subject matter expertise, and meaningful work to get large gains out of them. But with the capability jump that Gemini 3 brings, the challenge of getting more productivity out of LLMs has become more surmountable, and the point of widespread adoption is getting closer. The implications are profound, and we will continue to share our latest thinking on these developments in subsequent research.
At this point, we think the boost to the global economy in the next two years is underappreciated in most markets, as is the need for capital. We will live through the biggest capex boom of our lives in 2026 and 2027, and the investment plans are likely already baked in the cake. What that means for markets is less obvious, but it is these developments that are likely to be the central driver, and as a result, the most important area to understand.